Unfortunately, the chances are quite high!
Even WITHOUT a cold sore actually present on his lip, he can still spread it to you if he goes down on you. This is from 'asymptomatic viral shedding'. This is why herpes can be spread even if someone does not have a sore on them.
I have genital herpes, but not from a mouth cold sore. I take daily suppressive therapy, that keeps outbreaks away and prevents spreading it.
IF you do not wish for him to spread it to you, he either needs to take daily suppressive therapy, or needs to use a dental dam.