What are the chances for Pregnancy ?

my girlfriend and i have not yet had sex, but were planning on it, until one night we came pretty close by rubbing on each other. my penis was never actually inside her and a never ejaculated. a week or so later, she started feeling sick and had cramps and bloating and morning sickness, she thought she might have been pregnant because of the symptoms. she told me that she would have been ovulating that day or the next day and morning sickness happens one week after contraception and her period isn't for another week or so, I'm nervous, we are only 15. what are the chances this is actually pregnancy?