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LIkelihood of conception ?

Maybe you can help, my lmp was August 16th and I had sex on day 11 and maybe 15 (cannot remember) with ejaculation. I also had sex on day 21 without ejaculation (pull out). I had three early scans, one that showed me at 6 weeks and 3 days (EDC 5/23), one at 7 weeks one day (5/24), and one at 9 weeks 1 day (5/25). I have read that the earliest measurements are the most reliable. What is the likelihood of conception from day 21? I am very nervous about this. thanks, Amy.
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replied March 3rd, 2010
Especially eHealthy
Amy, I am not sure what you mean by day 21? 21 August or the 21st day of that cycle (Sept 6)?

With these due dates, you likely ovulated/conceived around Sept 1. That means sex between Aug 27 and Sept 2 got you pregnant.

Take care!
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replied March 4th, 2010
I was speaking of sex with pull out method on day 21 of that cycle (September 6th), not August 21st. When i used a conception calculator, it said that I ovulated on or around August 30th. Given the three scans, the first one measuring exactly to the LMP, what are the chances of conception from September 6th?

Also, when counting from LMP, would August 16th be considered day 1 of the cycle? (and August 30th be day 15 instead of 14?)
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replied March 4th, 2010
Especially eHealthy
Amy, The first day of menstruation is considered day 1 of your cycle. Spotting is not counted as the first day so the first day you HAVE to use a pad or tampon is normally day 1.

With your 3 scans being so close together, I just used the average date of ovulation/conception which is Sept 1. I do stretch the survival time of sperm inside your body and the survival time of the egg a little bit longer so the fertile time I gave (Aug 27 to Sept 2) will cover all 3 the scan dates. I think the chances that sex in this time frame got you pregnant is extremely high.

So the question you have to answer is if you had sex between Aug 27 and Sept 2. If you did, that is what made you pregnant. If not, then there is something wrong with the dates that you got.

LMP is not really useful as an accurate measure unless you have a perfect average cycle (28 days long with ovulation exactly 14 days before your NEXT period).

So conception on September 6 is extremely unlikely. It is almost a week late and not quite how mother nature works.

Congratulations with your pregnancy and best of luck!
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replied March 4th, 2010
Thank you! I also had very watery, light pink spotting on September 8th, which only lasted that day (twice when I wiped), which leads me to believe this was implanttion bleeding (not likely to be a result of intercourse from sept 6th), right?
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replied March 4th, 2010
Also, I was able to get my ultrasound paperwork. I had 5 ultrasounds completed before week 13 (since I have a history of miscarriages). On each ultrasound print out, it gave the gestational age by LMP, the gestational age by that day's ultrasound, and the due date. It also provided a range of plus or minus days depending on the specific week. It does seem that the earlier the ultrasound, the more accurate. Here is the information:

Week 6 = plus or minus 4 days
Week 7 = plus or minus 4 days
Week 9 = plus or minus 6 days
Week 11 = plus or minus 1 week
Week 12 = plus or minus 2 weeks

For the 5 ultrasounds, my due date varied a little. Week 6 = 5/23, Week 7 = 5/24, Week 9 = 5/25, Week 11 = 5/25, and Week 12 = 5/22. So it looks like my fertile window was August 26th - September 2nd.

Just a heads up for those that get an ultrasound around 12 weeks, it can actually be off by two weeks or 14 days. For example, my 12 week ultrasound showed a gestational age of 12w4d (range: 11w4d - 13w4d).
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