Yes, quite checking yourself out so often. It's just unnecessary disappointment. It's much more satisfying to just focus on the task, and find out your result some months down the line. I gained considerable size last spring from 150 pounds to about 175, since winter lasts long down here I never really paid attention to myself and worked out most every day. Next thing you know, late spring/early summer hit and everybody was telling me about how big I've gotten or if I was taking roids.
As DPG said, there are a lot of factors that will cause you to fluctuate. You said you'd be attempting to do a lot of cardio, your hydration levels will change and your weight as well. Take your time, stick to a consistent diet and work out schedule, and be patient.